US-India Nuclear Bill: Senate/House Conferencing II

Will the Congress pass a controversial bill to allow the U.S. to trade nuclear fuel with India by week's end? Most likely, I regret to write. On the off-chance that the House and Senate should fail to approve such legislation before this Congress ends, however, the process for the bill will begin anew next year.

Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (and my boss), a few days ago published "With Friends Like These... Uncivil Indian Nuclear Cooperation," a National Review Online op-ed which outlines some key arguments against the U.S.-India nuclear deal. Sokolski writes:

Less than a week after the U.S. Senate hastily cleared the way for generous U.S. nuclear cooperation with India, New Delhi made three announcements that pretty much destroyed the White House’s arguments for proceeding.

First, within hours of the Senate vote, India’s prime minister Manmohan Singh met in New Delhi with Iran’s new foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, and reaffirmed India’s interest in securing massive amounts of natural gas from Iran and upholding a previous Indian strategic cooperation agreement with Tehran.

Second — and with great fanfare — on November 20 Singh and Chinese president Hu Jintao signed a declaration committing their two countries to cooperate on civilian nuclear energy and to expand trade (to a level even higher than between the U.S. and India).

Finally, India’s new foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, announced November 26 that India had no problem with China giving nuclear assistance to Pakistan despite U.S. efforts to block any civil nuclear cooperation with the world’s worst proliferator.

In the U.S., none of these events received much press attention (they all happened after Congress recessed for Thanksgiving). Yet, taken together, they make a hash of the White House’s case for pushing unrestricted U.S.-Indian nuclear cooperation. Certainly, offering such cooperation is no longer likely to get New Delhi to hedge against a more muscular China or to wean India away from energy and security ties with Iran. Nor does the administration’s claim that it will strengthen nonproliferation and allow the U.S. to deal with India with far less reference to Pakistan seem very credible.

Unfortunately, however, the Congress -- more likely than not -- will pass the bill. Indeed, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns claimed today that the Congress will pass the conference report within thirty-six hours. Moreover, The Times of India also reported today that U.S. nuclear firms see the deal as "done," and are now trying to clarify Indian laws regarding accident liability at nuclear facilities.

Update (1:58 pm ET): Rediff reports that the conference report for the U.S.-India nuclear cooperation deal was approved by the House and Senate in a voice vote, and is ready to go to the White House. I don't think this correct, however, and until I find further confirmation of this, I'm going to assume it's not correct.

Update (2:09 pm ET): India eNews just published an article that contradicts Rediff's.

Update (6:56 pm ET): The House international relations committee has posted the text of the conference report, which House and Senate conferees filed with the Rules Committee. No further action has been taken, however.

Update (8:42 pm ET): The end, sad to say, is near. Carol Giacomo of Reuters reports the Congress will vote on the conference tomorrow.

Update (December 9, 2006, @ 11:00 am ET): Late last night, the House passed the conference report of H.R. 5682 in a 330-59-44 vote, and the Senate passed it in a unanimous consent vote. The bill -- which, on the positive side, still contains language requiring India's full cooperation against Iran's nuclear intransigence -- now goes to POTUS for signature.

Update (December 12, 2006 @ 8:43 pm ET): Press Trust of India reports that some on the Indian Left have joined critics of the U.S.-India nuclear deal on the Indian Right. Critics in India complain that the deal -- in particular, the bill's provisions on requiring full Indian cooperation against Iranian nuclear intransigence -- will undermine India's traditionally non-aligned foreign policy.

Posted by Robert at December 7, 2006 11:53 AM