Nuclear Heuristics reviewed by Lawrence Freedman in Foreign Affairs (May/June 2009)

Sir Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King's College London and nuclear historian par excellence, reviewed Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, the book that Nonproliferation Policy Education Center executive director Henry Sokolski and I co-edited, in the May/June 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs.

To get a copy of Nuclear Heuristics, you can:

• Download a free PDF version from the Strategic Studies Institute's website;
• Order a free second-printing of the book's softcover version from the Strategic Studies Institute's website (while supplies last); or
• Buy a softcover version of the book from Amazon.com.

Wohlstetter Book Now Available

• Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, edited by Robert Zarate and Henry Sokolski (Strategic Studies Institute, January 26, 2009), with commentaries by Henry S. Rowen, Alain C. Enthoven, Richard Perle, Stephen J. Lukasik and Andrew W. Marshall.

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter (2009) is now available via the website of its publisher, the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). The book's table of contents is available here.

Edited by Robert Zarate and Henry Sokolski, the book can be downloaded in digital form (.pdf); or online users can fill-out a form to request SSI to send them a free copy of the book's softcover version (shipping inclusive).

Also, a limited number of the book's softcover copies may be made available from time-to-time by independent booksellers for purchase on Amazon.com.

For more, visit Albert Wohlstetter Dot Com.

William Weed Kaufmann (1918-2008)

• "Obituaries: Defense Expert William Kaufmann" by Adam Bernstein (Washington Post, December 17, 2008).
• "William Kaufmann, Nuclear Strategist Who Helped Reshape Policy, Dies at 90" by Dennis Hevesi (The New York Times, December 21, 2008).
• "William Kaufmann, 90; MIT Political Scientist Reshaped Kennedy's Defense Strategy" (Boston Globe, December 26, 2008).

Strategic Force Posture Commission's Interim Report

Now available via the U.S. Institute of Peace's website: Interim Report of the Congressionally-appointed Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States.

Coming Soon . . .

Pioneers of nuclear-age policy analysis, Albert Wohlstetter (1913-1997) and Roberta Wohlstetter (1912-2007) emerged as two of America's most consequential, innovative and controversial strategists. Through the clarity of their thinking, the rigor of their research, and the persistence of their personalities, they were able to shape the views and aid the decisions of Democratic and Republican policymakers both during and after the Cold War. Although the Wohlstetters' strategic concepts and analytical methods continue to be highly influential, no book has brought together their most important published and unpublished essays--until now.

 

Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, edited by Robert Zarate and Henry Sokolski (Strategic Studies Institute, 2009). With commentaries by Henry S. Rowen, Alain C. Enthoven, Richard Perle, Stephen J. Lukasik and Andrew W. Marshall.

Available in January 2009.

NPEC's "How Much More Bomb Uranium Will Russia Blend Down?"

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) recently posted my essay on the future of Russian high enriched uranium (HEU) downblending and Russian low enriched uranium (LEU) sales to the United States in the wake of the Domenici Amendment:

Robert Zarate, How Much More Bomb Uranium Will Russia Blend Down? Washington, D.C.: NPEC, October 31, 2008.

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis also kindly let me blog about the essay and the Russian HEU/LEU issues it covers on his Arms Control Wonk weblog on Monday, November 1, 2008.

Congress Clears Domenici Amendment on Russian HEU Downblending

The Senate passed on Saturday a House measure that includes an amendment by retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) to create new incentives for Russia to keep blending excess military stocks of weapons-usable high enriched uranium (HEU) down to civil low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel after 2013.

Senators passed this measure, a so-called "continuing resolution" (CR) to fund government until early March 2009, in a 78-to-12 vote. The House passed the CR on Wednesday in a 370-to-58 vote.

Moscow is already downblending 500 metric tons of Soviet-era military HEU under the terms of its 1993 accord with Washington that led to the creation of the Megatons to Megawatts program. But this accord, which correspondingly obligates the U.S. to sell this downblended LEU to American nuclear power utilities on behalf of Russia, is set to expire in 2013.

Russian LEU imports into the U.S. outside of Megatons to Megawatts are strictly limited by the Department of Commerce.

According to the Department of Energy, roughly 50 percent of the nuclear fuel used by U.S. civil nuclear power reactors comes from the Megatons to Megawatts program's downblended Russian LEU.

POTUS Officially Withdraws U.S.-Russian Nuclear Deal

Today, President Bush officially withdrew from Congressional consideration the controversial U.S.-Russian civil nuclear deal. This accord -- known as a "123 agreement" after the section of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 that requires it -- would have changed American law to allow broad forms of bilateral cooperation in civil nuclear energy between the U.S. and Russia.

For more, see:

• the full text of: the U.S.-Russia "123" agreement to permit bilateral civil nuclear cooperation;
• the unclassified version of the Department of State's Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) on Russia; and
• the now-rescinded Presidential Determination 2008-19, memorandum from the President to the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Energy on the U.S.-Russia civil nuclear cooperation agreement (May 5, 2008).

See also:

• the special information page for the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center's project, Understanding the Next Phase of U.S.-Russian Civil Nuclear Relations: Opportunities, Risks and Choices and
• "Overview of The Next Phase of U.S.-Russia Civil Nuclear Relations: Opportunities Risks and Choices" (June 12, 2008; updated August 1, 2008), a background essay by NPEC research fellow Robert Zarate and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski.

NSG's Controversial Waiver to Permit Nuclear Exports to India

On Saturday, after protected negotiations, members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) agreed by consensus to a controversial waiver exemption to permit exports of nuclear goods and services to India. (The NSG's waiver is controversial for reasons that I've summarized on a different website.)

Full Text of U.S.-Russia "123" Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement

Today, President Bush submitted for Congressional review an agreement to broadly permit U.S.-Russia civil nuclear cooperation. The full text of this accord, known as a "123 agreement" after the section of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 that requires it, is available here.

Under U.S. law, the US-Russia 123 agreement will automatically enter into force after 90 days of continuous session, if Congress does not pass a law either to amend or block the agreement. Two bills -- H.R. 1400 (which has 325 co-sponsors and passed the House in a 397-to-16 vote last September) and S. 970 (which 71 out of 100 Senators have co-sponsored, but the consideration of which is being held up by at least one Senator) -- would block this agreement, but it remains unclear whether these bills will become law.

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), where I work as a research fellow, offers some great resources for those who interested in understanding better the context in which this agreement will be reviewed. First, NPEC recently released The Next Phase of U.S.-Russian Civil Nuclear Relations: Opportunities, Risks and Choices, a backgrounder by me and NPEC executive director Henry Sokolski on the seismic changes-in-the-making to this bilateral nuclear relationship.

Second, NPEC provides an excellent selection of primary source documents relevant to this agreement:

• Full text of the Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Russian Federation for Cooperation in the Field of Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy (May 6, 2008)
• Fact Sheet on U.S.-Russia Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation by U.S. Department of State (May 6, 2008)
• Statement by President Bush (May 6, 2008)
• Letter from Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) to President Bush (May 1, 2008)
• Letter from House Energy and Commerce Committee chair John Dingell (D-MI) and House Energy Subcommittee chair Bart Stupak (D-MI) to President Bush (May 7, 2008)
• Letter from Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and 30 other Senators to President Bush (May 7, 2008)

More to follow.